M. King Hubbert
Marion King Hubbert ( October 5, 1903 in San Saba, San Saba County, Texas, † 11 October 1989) was an American geologist and geophysicist. He worked for the Shell research lab in Houston and made several important contributions to geology and geophysics, some of which have an impact on political topics ( peak oil, energy policy). Often at him with " M. King Hubbert "or" King Hubbert " reference. Hubbert was a prominent member of the technocratic movement.
Life
Hubbert attended the University of Chicago, where he 1926 Bachelor of Science, 1928 Master of Science and Ph.D. in 1937 acquired. He studied geology, mathematics and physics. While he worked on his Ph.D, Hubbert worked for two years as a geologist for the Amerada Petroleum Company. From 1943 to 1964 he worked for the Shell Oil Company. He then worked as a geophysicist in the research and official statistics until 1976 for the United States Geological Survey (USGS ). In parallel, Hubbert was from 1963 to 1968 professor of geology and geophysics at Stanford University from 1973 to 1976 from the Berkeley University.
Research
Hubbert provided various contributions to geophysics, including a mathematical proof that rock in the earth's crust due to the enormous pressures behaves plastically and the clay -like flow behavior. This evidence explains why the Earth's crust deforms over long periods.
Hubbert's best-known studies are concerned with the capacity of coal, oil and gas fields. He assumed that the temporal development of the oil production of a field of a logistic function is similar. At the meeting of the American Petroleum Institute 1956 in San Antonio ( Texas) Hubbert made the prediction that oil production in the U.S. would be the early 1970s, reached in the late 1960s or the production peak. He became famous, was confirmed as this prediction in 1970. The curve, which he used for the analysis is now known as the Hubbert curve, and the "peak" as peak oil (English Hubbert peak or peak oil ).
The global production peak in 1974 he said ahead for 1995. The determination of the global peaks based here, as well as his prediction in 1956 for the U.S., on a number of assumptions, which he scored from his own experience. In retrospect, today its forecast of global peak oil in 1995 was incorrect. A look at his assumptions, however, shows that especially the anticipated growth in the consumption of it had been estimated to be very much higher than then entered. He obviously underestimated this effect of the two major oil crises.
Between October 17 1973 and March 1974, OPEC reduced the export of oil to the United States and Europe. This caused the oil crisis of 1973. 1975 confirmed the National Academy of Sciences in an assessment of Hubbert's calculations to a decline in oil and gas production and announced that their own, more optimistic estimates were incorrect. This drew a lot of media on Hubbert.
Honors
Hubbert was a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He was for a long time with the Geological Society of America connected. In 1954, he received from her the Arthur L. Day Medal. In 1962 he was elected as president of the Society and received the Penrose Medal of the Society in 1973. In 1981 he received the Prize of the Vetlesen G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation and Columbia University.
Writings (selection )
- Structural Geology. Hafner, New York 1972.