Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock ( born March 2, 1954) is an American psychologist. He is a professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

Life

Tetlock studied at the University of British Columbia in 1979 and received a Ph.D. in psychology from Yale University. From 1979 to 1996 he was professor at the University of California, Berkeley. From 1996 to 2001 he was a professor at Ohio State University, from 2002 back to Berkeley.

Work

Tetlock deals among other things with the handling of experts with forecasts. Second, he is interested in the way people deal with accountability and acceptance of responsibility. He also conducted research on bias in judgments and decisions.

Expert Political Judgment

In his book published in 2005, Expert Political Judgement Tetlock reports the results of two decades of research project in which he examines the forecasts of 284 commentators on political issues. The experts should predict the probability of occurrence and non-occurrence of different scenarios. By 2003, he had collected 82,361 predictions. These predictions were with reality as well as several other predictions of simple statistical models, uninformed and informed laymen compared. The experts cut hardly better than informed laymen and each group fared worse than simply rules and models. Within the experts Tetlock could at least identify a group of experts who better than a second group of experts in sections: According to Isaiah Berlin, the foxes were superior to the hedgehogs, although both groups were subject to simple statistical models. According to Tetlock but had Hedgehogs rather than asking foxes in the media.

  • Prejudice, Politics, and the American dilemma (ed. with Paul Sniderman, Edward Carmines ). Stanford University Press, 1993. ISBN 9,780,804,721,325th
  • Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology (ed., with Paul M. Sniderman, Richard A. Brody ). Cambridge University Press, 1991. ISBN 9,780,521,402,552th
  • Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (ed., with Aaron Belkin ). Princeton University Press, 1996. ISBN 0,691,027,927th
  • Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? . Princeton University Press, 2005. ISBN 0691123020th
  • Unmaking the West: " What- If? " Scenarios That Rewrite World History (ed., with Richard Ned Lebow, Noel Geoffrey Parker). University of Michigan Press, 2006. ISBN 047211543X.
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