Counterfactual thinking

Counterfactual thinking ( Latin " contrary to facts" ) is a cognitive process, which refers to thinking about not events that have occurred.

Introduction

Counterfactual thinking and the resulting counterfactual assumptions relate to events that would have possibly happened in the past, or would occur, if certain other events would (not ) occurred. To distinguish between what really happened and what could have happened or nearly happened, is of great importance in order to maintain control over reality. In our daily lives we think not only about real events that have occurred, but we also keep in mind not infrequently alternatives to these states and why or by which that did not occur.

Counterfactual and judgments

Counterfactual assumptions are very clearly related to subjective well-being ( " subective well-being " ), explain to a widely researched area of ​​social psychology. It is assumed that evaluative (ie, evaluative ) judgments are always made ​​relative to a reference standard, the so-called salient (which means as much as eye-catching ) standard. In counterfactual Ratings for this comparison standard is the event that had occurred almost or under certain circumstances. The assessment of the current situation and satisfaction can be measured in order to him. Think about a person, for example, that it is only very narrowly escaped a car accident, they will assess their current basic situation positive. The fact that one is an unpleasant event only just escaped ( by accident ), can have a positive impact on overall satisfaction, the (short-term at least).

If an event has not occurred, as one might have wished for, then the dissatisfaction is measured about mainly by how easy it is to construct an alternative, a better outcome of the situation mentally. Missed a person, for example, a bus by a few seconds, then they get angry more than if they missed it by 20 minutes. For the person who has missed the bus very scarce, it should be easy to mentally construct a different output ( " I would rather have gone faster, I would get the bus "), while at a 20 minute delay schwererfällt an alternative design.

From the ease of construction of alternative outputs also paradoxical reviews may arise. Thus, for example, Medvec, Madey and Gilovich 1995 surveys provided by the now classic finding that the winner of a silver medal less satisfied (eg the Olympic Games ) as the winner of a bronze medal. In winning a silver medal, the comparison is directed upwards, and indeed to the effect that one would almost won the gold medal. This comparison leads of what has happened ( silver medal ) less desirable than the counterfactual alternative event ( gold medal ) appear. The bronze winners, however, aligned his comparison of down, he almost won no medal. For him, the event that occurred ( bronze medal ) is more desirable than the counterfactual alternative event ( no medal ).

Classification in human cognition

Using the example of counterfactual thinking is clear how fickle can be human judgment. One and the same event can be evaluated very differently depending on the context or comparison standard. A person who has missed a few minutes an aircraft will initially be very annoying, because the construction of alternative outputs will come to the conclusion that probably very little would have to be different in order to catch the plane. Learns that person then that the plane, which she has only just missed, crashed, they will feel weird relief precisely because of the few things that would otherwise have to be so that they would have been in the aircraft.

Counterfactual thinking and regret

Psychological research has concluded that one regrets especially those things in retrospect and in the short time that you have done in the past, but which are considered unfavorable. In the long run, however, one regrets above all things that you did not do in the past and whose output is therefore not known. The possibilities of the impact that could have had a counterfactual action are complex. Therefore, one regrets afterwards in the long run, to have not at least tried. Did you try something and it failed, only the failed output is evident in this short moment.

Counterfactual thinking - Developmental Psychology

In developmental psychology, an implicit, ie not artikulierbares but quite present, understanding of counterfactual assumptions is found already at two -year old children. Verbal counterfactual statements are made for the first time in children of preschool age.

Definition of related terms

The counterfactual thinking can be distinguished from the concept of hypothetical thinking. The main difference is that hypothetical alternatives are in fact still possible while counterfactual are related to the past and therefore no longer feasible.