Exit poll

The exit poll (also exit poll by the English technical term ) is a research instrument of choice. On election day voters are asked when leaving the polling station by interviewer after casting their votes. In addition to the current selection decision, sociodemographic data and the choice decision of the last election - Recall question - will be charged. The data will be used for predictions in the election coverage and election analysis, including the voter transition analysis.

History

The instrument was first used in the gubernatorial election in Kentucky, USA in 1967 and used since 1978 also in Germany. The former first use in the state elections in Hamburg and Lower Saxony by infas was preceded by a non-published test 1976. Then decided the directors of ARD and ZDF, not to use the instrument on, to prevent misuse of the data during the election day. Since 1990, exit polls are also used in Germany again.

While in Germany, the prognosis of the outcome of the election coverage in the foreground, the data from the exit polls are used in the U.S. mainly for election analysis. There rises a joint institution of ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and Fox News Channel, the data on election day.

In federal elections, the publication of results of exit polls after voting until the polls close is prohibited and may be punishable as a misdemeanor with a fine of up to € 50,000 ( § 32 para 2, § 49a Federal election law ). For many other options similar rules apply.

Prior to the 2009 federal election came the possibility of such unauthorized early publications in the spotlight of politics and journalism. Although a timely publication is easily possible already by conventional websites, particularly novel Internet services such as Twitter ( micro - blogging) be skeptical viewed in this context - especially since the prolapsed prior publications in this election just took place over Twitter.

Also in the general election of 2013 at the latest leaked through at 17:03 exit polls on Twitter.

Since the results in Germany are published only after the closing of the polling stations (usually by 18 clock ), the name 18- clock - forecast is in use.

Application

Depending on the choice many electoral districts are chosen differently for the exit polls at random. In federal elections, these are about 400, in state elections between 120 and 200 In exit polls from 20,000 ( in federal elections ) and 5000-10000 ( in state elections ) interviews are conducted. These are significantly more than the 1,000 cases that are applicable in the polls and voting intention surveys. The exit polls also differ in the composition of the respondents of the voting intention surveys, because there are only real voters surveyed. Non-voters are undecided and do not occur in exit polls. Postal voters can not be considered, whereby a portion of the electorate fails systematically excluded from the sample.

Forecast

In contrast to surveys before the election is asked in the exit poll after the election, not intention, but after the actual voting behavior. The raw data are weighted before the release of the pollsters, by internal key. This weighting procedure are not publicly known, which makes the intersubjective comprehensibility, which is a prerequisite for a scientific forecast, impossible.

In the election coverage, the exit polls will be used as the basis for forecasts and projections. This is not due to a real prediction, since it is not asked to 's future behavior, but after already executed actions. The forecast will be published only after the actual event.

Exit polls can be an indication of voter fraud; nevertheless may differ considerably from the actual election result even without election fraud the result of an exit poll.