Hype cycle

The hype cycle shows which phases of public attention by running a new technology in their introduction. The term of the hype cycle has been positioned by Gartner consultant Jackie Fenn marked (The Microsoft System Software Hype Cycle Strikes Again, Jackie Fenn, 1995) and is now technology consultants to evaluate the introduction of new technologies.

The presentation is in accordance with Fenn in a diagram: on the y- axis the attention ( expectations ) is applied for the new technology, on the X- axis represents the time since the announcement. The curve initially increases explosively, then fell just as strongly after a maximum. After an intermediate minimum, the curve rises again to a higher level of persistence. Mathematically, it is simply about the decay according to a step excitation in the form of a strongly exponentially damped oscillation with approaching an equilibrium position to make the leap higher than at the beginning of the oscillation.

The simple hype cycle is divided into five sections according to this definition:

Famous example is the Internet itself: initially misunderstood, then explosively overestimated ( dot com bubble ) and now at a constantly rising path. The inventor Jackie Fenn could use this curve the dotcom crash half a year previously predicted.