Inverse gambler's fallacy

As the reverse gambler's fallacy ( engl: inverse gambler 's fallacy ) is a simple gambler's fallacy similar error in estimating probabilities refer to: A pair of dice is thrown showing double six. This is a pretty unlikely outcome, ie the dice have previously quite often have been thrown. More generally, claims the reverse gambler's fallacy that an unlikely event shows that many more events exist.

As with the simple gambler's fallacy, the error in a sentence is clear: " dice have no memory ." Each throw is stochastically independent of each other litter.

The error is based on the right knowledge that even unlikely events in a large number of attempts to enter sometime. But the dice example considers just not a large number of experiments, but a certain pitch, the result of which opportunities are not influenced by other throws.

Obviously it is subject to the fallacy rather when an event is highlighted among other equally probable events. Unconsciously, we would like to explain "special" events retrospectively by changing the background assumptions about the random experiment. The modified hypothesis is " unusual " result then seemingly confirmed by the. Just as well you could also feel a philanthropic programmer put the machine programmed to output the 17 as soon as you come to the device.

Multiverse, the anthropic principle and the reverse gambler's fallacy

In philosophy, the anthropic principle is discussed along with Multiverse theories as an explanation for any existing fine-tuning of the fundamental constants in our universe. According to this explanation exists an ensemble of universes, and only by selective observation - observer can perceive only those universes in which their existence is possible - our observable universe appears to us as fine tuned.

The English term fallacy for the reverse gambler's fallacy inverse gambler 's was introduced in the context of this discussion, by Ian Hacking. In a paper published in 1987 he is in favor against design arguments as an explanation for fine tuning, but believes he can show that all types of universes ensembles can not be used together with the anthropic principle as an explanation for fine tuning. A multiverse would be from the ensemble of all possible universes Big Bang, for example, would be by I. Hacking together with the anthropic principle, a possible explanation for fine tuning. In contrast, Hacking believes that the adoption of such a declaration would be a fallacy, if one were to so-called Wheeler universes ( an infinite temporal sequence of universes in which every single universe begins with a big bang and ends in a Big Crunch ) use. Although the declaration with the ensemble of all possible universes Big Bang was apparently similar to that with the Wheeler universes, be different in reality, and in the latter case there are evidence of an inverse gambler's fallacy. This view has been independently by several Autorenwidersprochen by emphasizing that there is no selective effect observation in inverse gambler's fallacy and the comparison with the inverse gambler's fallacy, therefore, for statements by Wheeler universes do not agree.

R. White has published in 2000 a modified version of Hacking's argument. N. Bostrum has noted, however, that the conditions to which White goes out, do not apply to most actually proposed Multiverse theories and also ultimately lead to implausible consequences. It includes therefore the invalidity of White's argument. Bostrom has also shown how the example given of hacking, which leads to the reverse gambler's fallacy, would have to be modified so that it would actually comparable to the anthropic argument. To selective observation effects to take into account, therefore, would in Hacking's example with the dice game, a player long wait outside the arcade until a double-six was thrown. Under these modified conditions, the reverse gambler's fallacy would be no fallacy. Instead, a player could under these conditions if it is admitted by a thrown double-six in the game room, actually close to right that has already taken place, a more or less large number of throws.

Swell

• Logic
• Gambling
• Probability Theory
• Dummy argument