Neglect of probability

As probability neglect (English: probability neglect ) is the tendency referred to assess the probabilities of smaller risks wrong. Small risks are either completely ignored or grossly overestimated.

The probability neglect occurs primarily in emotional situations. The fear of the consequences of threatening scenarios not only leads to an overestimation of the probability of occurrence, but also to an overestimation of the benefits of preventive and protective measures. This overestimation may in turn draw adverse consequences for personal and political decisions by themselves. A frequently cited example is the exaggerated fear of terrorist attacks. If this causes is frequently traveled by car instead of by plane, the probability neglect can cost many lives, because flying is actually less risky than driving.