Population decline

Population decline is the shape of the population development, in which the increase in population through birth rates and immigration is less than the decrease due to mortality and emigration. He is studied in demography; historical population declines are subject of research in historical science. In particular, the natural population decline, so the effect of birth and death rate, is a phenomenon of many post-modern industrial societies.

This decline in population since the 1990s, is particularly apparent. Thus there were in 2003 some industrialized countries with a significant population decline, such as Bulgaria, Russia, Ukraine and Hungary. In the future, more industrialized countries will be confronted with this fact expected. The natural population decline in a few developing countries that previously recorded very high growth rates, such as Botswana ( -0.55 % in 2003 ), Zimbabwe or South Africa, can be attributed to the AIDS epidemic.

Globally, however, although in some regions population decline is observed, recorded a population growth. The UN medium projection expected in 2006 and 2025 and 7.9 billion by 2050, 9.2 billion people. If the number of births per woman ( fertility rate) - as assumed in the forecast - levels off at 1.85 in the long term, it is expected from a world population decline after 2050.

Situation in the industrialized countries

In the developed industrial nations, particularly in Europe, has been the introduction of the birth control pill late 1960s, a declining birth rate recorded ( Pillenknick ), but could be far more than offset by immigration. However, the long-term decreasing fertility rate leads not only to relativize this hike surplus, but also to socio-political problems facing warned long ago demographers.

For one, the infrastructure of developed countries is more focused on growth or stagnation as to shrinkage; the consequences are empty buildings, especially older buildings in need of renovation, which would often be maintained, the absence of public transport links or the closure of village supermarkets.

Secondly, the social systems, including the pension system and health care for the most industrialized states are constructed so that current contributors have to pay for current pensioners ( generation contract ). The result is that when population decline due not require preservation birth rates fewer contributors have to pay for more receivers, which either increase or decrease the contributions of the services. However, the transition to alternative systems, such as a system- supported self- care for their own future pension is, in part, through out is difficult fully implemented and does not change the problem that fewer and fewer people working and more people are retiring (see also Mack Roth- thesis ). Instead of pension reductions would have been perhaps later an inflationary effect as more people withdraw their deposits, as young people create new ones.

Another consequence of population decline is the conversion of the age pyramid towards a form known as onion, kebab or - in allusion to the aging of the population - is called urn: A population structure with few children and young people, but with many old people; the curve then falls only in old age again. This also has social consequences: "over-age " Society and is kinderarm, schools and kindergartens are closed. At the same time, the demand for nursing staff.

In some cases, can also be observed that the Company is child hostile, or at least alienated from children. The last circumstance is in no way due to the natural decrease, but rather to social changes, which also are among the causes of the population decline. This primarily involves the transformation of the social position of women by a competent person for the household and children towards of a working person who surrounded their needs, so having children accordingly.

As a result of this development, and is often called a consistent population policy to halt the population decline or at least to slow down. Is carried out consistently such a policy so far only in a few countries. The instruments used for the fall after German terms mostly in the field of family policy. In Germany, family policy has been mainly understood as a social policy; only recently was essentially a measure of population policy reasons (reduction of childlessness among working, especially high-income women) with the parental allowance was introduced in 2007 for the first time.

Overall, children are far more likely, however, understood as a private matter. The costs associated with them can be applied to a large extent by their parents. In addition to the livelihood include in particular the care and education costs for which a parent often have to limit his employment and thus by so-called opportunity cost of the stronger beat economically to book, the better this (usually the mother) are formed.

Often criticized is also that the social systems of most countries reversed socialize arising from children economic benefits: after entering the labor paid by the children of taxes and social contributions come when the parent generation is due to old age dependent on care, not only parents, but also non- parents benefit. Critics speak to the extent of "Transfer exploitation " of parents and families, especially by binding to the acquisition Biography non-parents even higher pensions received (especially childless women can, unencumbered by caring responsibilities, be more gainfully employed and thus acquire pension rights, while parents often must reach retirement of the father for the mother). It is controversial how far Childless vice versa participate through taxes and levies to the "investment" in children.

Slowly move the potential risks and population decline economic and social aspects in the focus of scientific observations: it is feared the rising average age of the working age population will negatively affect on the performance and capacity for innovation and economic growth. The OECD estimates that the demographic change eg Germany costs already half a percent economic growth per year, although the actual demographic change still lies ahead ( there are currently still the baby boomers of the 60 prime-age ). Is turned Applies inter alia, with a shrinking population, economic development is necessary in order to maintain the standard of living or even better can, because the economic output per capita can rise in this case, even if it decreases in total. The contrary is held, the less shrinkage than the increasing aging of society is the problem. Relative to the total population go back the number of economically active, working people while the climb of supply needy. Even if economic development does not descend into permanent recession, it will therefore be necessary to remove the workers an increasing relative proportion of their income for the purpose of redistribution. Such, ever increasing burden of the younger cohorts could, such as merchant and Birg write (see bibliography), not only undermine the motivation, but also cause migration problems, which enhance the development. No Longer distribution margins could especially for vulnerable people have such drastic consequences, causing internal unrest with emergence of extremist political groups.

A more specific analysis shows that in the industrialized nations in the most highly qualified human populations ( the majority of their time in training and career and not in family and children invest ) the first birth rates decline. If the birth rate in these populations under the replacement level of 2.1, with about 30 years of delay, a shortage of highly qualified technical and management personnel. This problem is acute in Germany, but virulent in all western industrial countries. This therefore compete for highly qualified professionals. This esp. tax, social and migration policies play a role. The countries of the Anglo-American regions, have their active migration policy aims to attract skilled workers ( "skilled immigration "), while from Europe - mainly from Eastern Europe - a stream of skilled labor has been used in the direction of the Anglo-American area. The result is a European trend to deskilling, which should further weaken the competitiveness of Europe.

Situation in developing countries

Botswana ( -0.04 %), Cook Islands (-1.2 %), Dominica ( -0.08: As mentioned, a few underdeveloped countries are currently affected by a decline in population, the majority of these countries are faced with the problem of AIDS %), Virgin Islands ( -0.12 %), Samoa (-0.2 % ), South Africa (-0.4 %), Swaziland (0.23 %), Trinidad and Tobago ( -0.87 %). Some other states have only very slight growth due to the AIDS problem: Zimbabwe ( 0.62 %). However, an emerging economy such as China will join with over one billion inhabitants in a few years in the phase of population decline if the fertility rate of 1.54 is not increased. But this is very unlikely due to the state enforced one-child policy, also has significantly lowered in China with an average decrease in the birth of four children per woman in the last thirty years, the fertility rate. A strong decline in birth rates in recent years also experienced Algeria, Iran, Mexico, Thailand, Tunisia and Turkey. Excluding the transition countries from Iran the situation is particularly tense. The city of Tehran reached in 2000 estimated only a fertility rate of 1.4, which is even below the average of developed countries. The metropolitan area in 2006 reached 1.5 children per woman. At the lowest fertility in Iran Gilan and Mazandaran provinces in the Caspian Sea, which only reached 1.3 in 2006. This is already lower than in Germany with 1.6. Exacerbating affects the brain, on the one hand in the capital, Tehran, on the other hand abroad. Meanwhile, there are 32 developing and emerging countries, where the number of births is no longer sufficient to ensure that the current population is to be maintained.

Ecological consequences

For the purposes of global environmental protection a decline in population is considered desirable. This could be reduced possibly increasing pollution and resource consumption. However, the thinning of rural areas could, for example, in East Germany also have negative consequences for the environment. Thus, in certain places due to a lower and usually older population, many care facilities (such as shops, schools, etc.) are no longer used and the remaining population must move to the next more central location. According to many experts, the volume of traffic will increase greatly in such regions, while a lower resource consumption (eg, sewage) can not be expected as soon as the technical infrastructure has a required minimum utilization ( for example, if not enough sewage accumulates must anyway " rinsed " are to prevent the formation of pathogens ) and can only be adjusted in the long term. One solution would be the abandonment of entire villages, but this appears feasible for political reasons only in individual cases.

Positive effects

A long-term decline in the birth rate translates into a lower pressure impact on the labor market. Since in the case of a falling birth rate, younger birth cohorts are weaker than older, decreases the number of applicants for apprenticeships, thereby reducing youth unemployment. This phenomenon was observed in Germany in 2010. 2011 continued this trend.

Historical

Population decline without any external factors such as starvation, disease or war is historically exceptional. So far as is known only from the history of the Roman Empire. The Roman emperor Augustus enacted marriage laws, which should solve the problem of population decline, particularly in the ruling class. Men from 25 to 60 and women 20 to 50 years had to be married accordingly. If not, they had fines entrichten.Diese schemes involved only residents with Roman citizenship.