Psychohistory (fictional)

Psychohistorik (English: Psychohistory ) is the German name for a science that is in several novels by the U.S. author Isaac Asimov crucial. It permits based on mathematical, statistical and sociological methods and general yet precise statements about the future behavior of large groups of people.

Foundation - cycle

Asimov constructed the Psychohistorik in his science fiction novels as socio- mathematical science, predicted the downfall of the Galactic Empire, and by means of which a plan could be developed in order to shorten the period of interregnum between the old and a future galactic empire. The concept was first introduced in five short stories (1942-1944), which were merged in 1951 as a novel Foundation.

In related novels, it is the mathematician Hari Seldon, who developed the Psychohistorik and leads to their bloom. He calculated that the existing for about 12,000 years Galactic Imperium of Man is going to collapse a few centuries later. The subsequent interregnum into chaos and barbarism would take his calculations, after 30,000 years, until finally can establish a second galactic empire of mankind.

Seldon warns the rulers of the Empire from impending collapse, but is due to the suspicious and characterized by hardening of the initiative zeitgeist no hearing. Instead, he falls out of favor and, by his behavior, that his imperial government an ultimatum: he could be executed or relocate with his entire psycho-historical research project into exile on a planet at the edge of the inhabited galaxy either.

Seldon had predicted this reaction the imperial government with the help of Psychohistorik and needs. Under the pretext of creating the Encyclopaedia Galactica and the ultimatum of the imperial government Seldon convinced the scientists of the project and their families of the need for their resettlement on the planet Terminus. From this scientific germ cell produced in the course of the centuries the Foundation Empire, which eventually dominated large parts of the galactic outdoor areas that make up the crumbling Galactic Empire has been withdrawn.

Core of Seldon's project are the underground on the planet Trantor ( seat of government of the Galactic Empire ) remaining scholars who over time influence and direct the galactic history of mankind by means of the Psychohistorik. Asimov was this group of scientists called " Second Foundation " (English Second Foundation ). In contrast to the scientists on Terminus, whose work the political control of galactic territories object and effect, the attention of the remaining on Trantor scientists focused on the discovery and mastery of human consciousness or spirit.

Basics

Asimov Psychohistorik based according to Michael F. Flynn besides psychology concepts to the gas kinetic or statistical mechanics.

In the Psychohistorik therefore every individual is considered analogous to a gas molecule that can occupy different "individual " states. Because the future behavior of a single individual can not be accurately predicted, but only a certain probability for each possible pattern of behavior is "only" the behavior of sufficiently large groups of people, such as the entire population of a planet is calculated. Asimov drew an analogy to properties of gas molecules: Here, an observer could hardly compute the direction of motion of a single gas molecule. The direction of movement of large quantities of gas molecules, for example in terms of their speed and their distribution, however, can be calculated with high probability.

The fictional Psychohistorik of Asimov is based on the assumption that by means of empirical statistical laws of evaluable general course of future social developments can be calculated. Because of this, it is assumed in the Psychohistorik believe that with enough time and effort, the behavior of populations can be influenced and controlled so that an intended direction of development is gradually be brought about. According to the Psychohistorik is a prerequisite for the effectiveness of the influence that the individuals of a given population do not know welcherart is the influence exerted on them.

Axioms

Hari Seldon led for Psychohistorik two axioms a:

• The size of the population whose behavior is to be modeled must be sufficiently large
• The population must remain unaware of the results of the psycho-historical analysis

A third underlying axiom was considered trivial and thus not explicitly postulated:

• Man is the only intelligent life form in the galaxy.

The Primärradiant

The Primärradiant is a device with which the psycho-historical formulas and equations to predict the future developments can be represented visually. Like a beamer the formulas in unspecified declared type are shown, for example on walls or in space, the interaction takes place by means of intellectual control of Primärradianten. Thus, the representation can be increased, among other things, or rotated, edited the formulas and notes are inserted. In principle, all changes remain anonymous.

A new student who is predicted for future participation in the project, own the accessories need to introduce psycho-historical plan and against a rigorous review by five different committees that examine the underlying mathematical formulas rigorously defend. After two years there will be a re-examination. After her successful completion of the addition is finally inserted.

The Primärradiant provides formulas and equations is a colored encoding to enable the psycho historians rapid interpretation.

• Seldon Black corresponds to the original, developed by Seldon and Amaryl during the first four decades at the University of Streeling plan. Here the so-called Seldon crises, the duration of the plan and the appearance of the second Galactic Empire are set.
• Speaker Red are the after Seldon's death added by the leading psycho- historians of the Second Foundation additives. This probably began Gaal Dornick as the second First Speaker of the Foundation.
• Deviation Blue are observed deviations from the psycho-historical projections, with a standard deviation greater than 1.5 compared with the predicted result ( 1.5 σ ). In particular, the appearance of the mule produced strong deviations between 0.5 to 10 sigmoid colon compared to the original plan, and it took a full century by the Second Foundation to return the galactic development back on the Seldon Plan.

From the following fans, other colors were invented, which are mentioned by Asimov:

• Notation Green: Additions by relevant scientific papers ( Forward the Foundation).
• Projection Purple: a useful and in later times used for teaching purposes representation to show the limits of Speaker Red equations ( Forward the Foundation).