Scenario analysis

Scenario analysis is a method of analysis in the field of Business Administration (Innovation Management) comprehensible forecasting of future developments.

General

The term scenario comes from the theater and film language and was introduced in 1967 by Kahn and Wiener in the economics. You define scenario as "a hypothetical sequence of events constructed- for the purpose of focussing attention on causal processes and decision points". Both authors therefore understand the scenario analysis as a synthetic sequence of events that will draw attention to processes and decision-making needs. As part of the scenario analysis, the effects of individual variable variables on a given portfolio are analyzed.

The basic idea of ​​scenario analysis is to identify factors (called the design field) that affect the future of the object of study ( the scenario field), eg transmission bandwidth, demography or online access in the population. Subsequently, the development or the development opportunities of these factors is expected to create out of the possible lines of development factors combinatorially future scenarios.

After reduction of the scenarios by exclusion of inconsistent combinations (for example, 24 hours a day of sunshine and at the same time massive rainfall ), aggregation of similar scenarios and selection of particularly interesting scenarios (eg best case, worst case and most likely scenario ) can be set for each of the remaining scenarios imagine the impact on the actual investigation. The coloring, the visionary power of a scenario must not be forgotten especially in the presentation to the client, as it shapes the previously determined number desert tangible.

Method

A critical step in the analysis is the determination of the key factors and the consolidation of scenarios dar. Since there can be hard quality criteria are missing the researchers basically exert influence on the results ( conscious as unconscious ).

The success of the scenario analysis depends largely on the technical and methodological expertise of the participants, as well as the quality of the data used. What is needed is the ability to think complex, networked and also capture the data determined accordingly. To support there are a number of software packages.

Disadvantages

The method is very time-consuming - not least because each considered a key factor multiplies the number of raw scenarios. Compared to an expert survey is the detailed analysis of lengthy and requires great personal and financial expense. Nevertheless, it can not guarantee safe results but only vaguely present different scenarios. Depending on the scientific claim can be specified for the scenarios not even concrete probabilities.

Extreme events ( wild cards ) such as wars, massive political changes (eg German reunification ) or very unlikely events (such as the landing of aliens on earth or a global epidemic ) can not absorb efficiently in the analysis. At the same time it is very unlikely especially for longer periods of time, that no major unexpected events occur. With the exact problems of predicting future developments, the futurology sets apart.