Swing vote
Swing voters are voters ( core supporters ), but with the different options that are not set to a particular party to change the selected party.
The proportion of floating voters has increased significantly compared to the past. The swing voters play a special role in the election advertising of the major parties, because they are considered either critical. While the regular voters are considered "safe" and be courted little (have to), election advertising is targeted to the convincing swing voters. These are suggested by the major parties usually in the political center.
Furthermore, there is change voting patterns within the two political camps, so the left and right. For example, an SPD voters unhappy with his party, then he gives his voice rather another left party like the Greens or the Left, not the CDU / CSU and FDP.
The cause of the increased share is seen, among other things, that traditional ties to certain social groups increasingly loosen: Select Religious people or more selected CDU, trade unionists rather SPD.
On the characteristics of swing voters there are competing views. The skeptical position sees in them " political quicksand " of - politically disinterested or informed - now here, now there may be borne. The optimistic view recognizes in swing voters not only those citizens who are particularly influential in elections, but sees in them a sense a voter elite that is above-average education and strongly interested in politics. In fact, can not detect general differences in terms of education and political interest between swing voters and other voters in Germany. Among swing voters thus appear similar to many disinterested to be found less educated and uninformed persons and highly interested, highly educated and very well-informed persons as among voters who do not vote in two consecutive elections for various parties.
To determine whether citizens are swing voters or not, surveys are generally used. If the so-called panel method used, subjects are asked to first subject choice according to their voting behavior; the same people are asked to second subject choice after their current voting behavior. Comparing the data with each other, you can determine whether or not they match. Problem, this approach is mainly because not all respondents may be originally wiederbefragt and the remaining individuals may differ systematically from the departed. In addition, repeat surveys are associated with considerable effort. Therefore, the so-called reminiscence method is more commonly used. These people will be asked at the time of the second subject choice according to their current choice behavior as well as after the voting behavior in the interest of choice in the past. It is necessary only one survey. But a number of respondents can not remember their past voting behavior or do not want to confess to in interview. Therefore, there are significant measurement errors. In Germany, the frequency of the alternating choice is clearly underestimated with this popular method.