Tipping point (sociology)

Hailing from the English term tipping point (Eng. tipping point ) indicates a point or moment at which a previously straight and clear trend abruptly breaks off by certain feedback, changes direction or is greatly accelerated ( " qualitative turning point ").

Was first used the term in 1957 by Morton Grodzins in an investigation of racial segregation. Further developed then it has the U.S. economist Thomas Schelling. Currently, this term is often used in conjunction with climate models. Scientists suspect that in the climate evolution are ( eg spontaneous, fundamental changes in the global heat transport by altered water or air currents ) cause tipping points that dramatic climate changes in a very short time. Among these are the melting of the Greenland ice sheet or the El Niño phenomenon.

In 2000 the book was published " Tipping Point - How can cause small things big" ( Original title: The tipping point - How Little Things Can Make A Big Difference) by Malcolm Gladwell and made the term popular.

• 4.1 Digital Camera replaces analog camera
• 4.2 flat panel replaces CRT monitor

General Example

The preparation of popcorn: It is oil in a pot, a few millimeters high. Then a handful of corn kernels to and sets the pot on the stove and heat the pot. The pot is getting warmer, but nothing will happen first. Only after a few minutes when the oil has reached the temperature of 163 degrees Celsius, the first kernel of corn will pop. The reason is that a kernel of corn has a hard exterior and stable blanket is filled inside with soft and hydrated starch. The water inside starts to boil and vaporize and pressure is built up until the casing pressure can not withstand and bursts: Gradually, the corn kernels are exploding. Only a few, then more and more rapidly until the temperature has reached 169 degrees Celsius. This is due to the fact that not all corn kernels are the same size, the shells of the corn kernels are not all the same thickness, etc. But in the narrow range of 163 degrees Celsius to 169 degrees Celsius almost all burst and the process is irreversible.

Tipping point leadership

In business, the phenomenon Tipping Point is considered as an element of a leadership style. It is assumed that changes in the organization are not based on the transformation of the mass. Rather, you have to focus on individuals or Extreme, which have a great influence on the asymmetric so-called Performance and as soon trigger a " Tipping Point ".

Success Factors

Gladwell has identified three factors that are responsible for the spread of an epidemic:

The Law of the Few ( The law of the few )

Not all members of a group have the same influence. Rather, individual members have a disproportionate influence to bring about change.

Stickiness ( sticking )

The presentation of a message has a big impact on whether the addressee actually can be motivated to act. This can have a big impact even small changes. For example, the children's show "Sesame Street" flopped at first pilot trials in the USA, but was still a success. The original concept was modified by the addition of the figure Bibo.

The Power of Context ( environmental conditions )

People are very much influenced in their actions by the environmental conditions of the situation. As such, the spread of epidemics and the success of interventions are dependent on the situation of the addressees. An example of this is the application of broken windows theory by New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in 1994. The police of New York focused on combating apparent Bagatellverbrechen, but the quality of life of New Yorkers affected, so sign for " zero - to set tolerance. " The policy Giuliani led to a significant decline in crime in New York. The potential criminals in New York was made clear that " zero tolerance " also to small transgressions prevailed, and this attitude was the tipping point in the crime statistics in New York.

In an interview with TIME magazine, Gladwell points to another theory. People with lead poisoning are therefore disinhibited .. "In the U.S. the lead in 1973 disappeared from the gasoline. Exactly 18 years later, when the then -born arrived in the age at which one commonly is criminal, the steep drop in the crime rate starts in big cities. " Levitt describes the study by Lott and Whitley, which shows a more plausible alternative explanation, by relying based on statistical data from several countries approaching the topic. It is therefore to be assumed that a variety of factors has contributed to this effect, only the inclusion of all of these in a large-scale study could give a better picture on causalities.

Examples in business

Digital camera replaces analog camera

The transition from analog camera to digital camera is referred to as the tipping point. Within 3 years the market share of digital cameras has increased to 90 percent in the sale of five. A short time later, the sale of analogue cameras has dropped to almost zero.

Flat screen replaced CRT monitor

The transition from CRT to flat screen is referred to as the tipping point. Within 3 years the market share of flat panel displays of 5 per cent has risen to 90 percent. Shortly thereafter, the market share of CRT monitors has gone to zero.