Berlin procedure

The Berlin method (BV ) is a mathematical method for component decomposition and seasonal adjustment monthly and quarterly economic time series. The mathematical foundations were developed in the late sixties of the last century by the Technical University of Berlin and the German Institute for Economic Research ( DIW). The most important user of the method is the Federal Statistical Office.

On the web pages of the Federal Statistical Office, the current version 4.1 of the Berlin method is described in detail. In addition, the Federal Statistical Office for the analysis for non-commercial purposes, a user-friendly BV4.1 software for PC as freeware available.

Special features of the method

The current version 4.1 of the Berlin method differs from other common components decomposition and seasonal adjustment procedures (such as X-12 -ARIMA ) by the following characteristics:

• The seasonal adjustment is possible without any problems even with rapidly changing annual seasonal patterns.
• The profiles of the identified trend-cycle components are economically plausible.
• The cost / benefit ratio is low, because the execution of high quality analyzes of user requires no special training or expertise even even longer experience in dealing with the procedure.
• The analysis results are basically user- independent, since no time-series- specific process parameters need to be set.
• Due to the use of linear regression models, there are basically no differences between directly and indirectly measured analytical results of aggregate rows.