Bradley effect

The Bradley Effect (also Wilder effect) referred to in the opinion of the public about political elections in the United States, a tentative explanation for a deviation of the voting results of the opinion polls at the expense of a non-white candidates. Named is the theory according to Tom Bradley, the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, the 1982 elections for governor of California lost, although he led in some polls, and after the African-American politician Douglas Wilder, the 1989 elections to the Governor of Virginia with much smaller than the predicted vote lead won.

State of opinion

According to the theory, the deviation should be based on that vote by the respondents the true answer, against the non-white candidates, is perceived as socially undesirable, and they therefore claim to be undecided or voting for the non-white candidates. In particular, some white voters would give a wrong answer when asked for fear of exposing themselves to criticism, to decide how to vote according to the skin color. The reluctance to answer the question of the choice decision is appropriate, sometimes extended to polls after voting at the ballot box. The skin color of the questioner could influence the response of the voter.

Some pollsters have the theory of the Bradley effect rejected as unfounded while others argued that there might have been the effect in past elections, but not in the recent past. An analysis of 133 Senate and gubernatorial elections 1989-2006 comes to the conclusion that prior to 1996, black candidates in the median sections 3.1% worse than in the polls since 1996 but better by 0.3 %. Also represented some pollsters, like the psychologist Anthony Greenwald and political scientist Bethany Albertson, the theory of " reverse " Bradley effect. Both explain their theses with socially desirable behavior of people in polls.

Comparable explanations

In other contexts, similar effects have been claimed as in particular:

• Expectation Expectation
• Spiral of silence
• Shy Tory Factor ( for the benefit of the British Conservatives )
• Flora Syndrome ( to the detriment of women candidates, named after the Canadian politician Flora MacDonald ).

Evidence

• Policy ( USA )
• Opinion research
• Distortion ( empiricism )