George Gallup

George Horace Gallup ( born November 18, 1901 in Jefferson (Iowa ), † 26 July 1984 Tschingel, Switzerland ) was an American pioneer of market and opinion research. He came from the field of journalism and advertising before the market research - and especially political opinion research turned. He used the first probability theory to perform science-based representative surveys.

The most-quoted anecdote with which the reputation Gallup was founded, plays in the presidential campaign of the United States from 1936. Back then interviewed the magazine The Literary Digest millions of Americans by written survey. Due to the returning answers a victory by Landon over Roosevelt was predicted. George Gallup drew a representative sample ( 2000 weekly face-to -face interviews ) and correctly predicted the victory of Roosevelt against Landon. In a letter he said before the announcement of the poll results predicted that Landon would certainly Literary Digest incorrectly reported as the winner. He was right.

The reason for the incorrect prediction was a selection bias in the sample: In the written survey, the results depend on who decides to participate. In addition Literary Digest had sent the questionnaires to persons who were registered as a phone or car owners. Shortly after the economic crisis had only privileged groups of voters such luxury goods. This first " coup" of the term " Gallup poll " has become synonymous for precise public opinion polls on a scientific, statistical basis.

He then founded the Gallup International Association, remains one of the world's leading market and opinion research institutes.