Hirsch-Report

The Hirsch report is a report prepared by Robert Hart for the U.S. Department of Energy report under the title Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts deals, Mitigation, & Risk Management with the probability of the global oil production peak ( engl. peak oil ). Hirsch sees understand the importance of timely action to avert the global, as " risky " and "dramatic" to take designated economic, social and political consequences that could be associated with the achievement of the global oil production peak.

Robert L. Hirsch, a scientist at the " Science Applications International Corp.. " (SAIC ) in San Diego, Calif., project manager and main author of the report, published in October 2005, a summary of his findings for the Atlantic Council.

Introduction

Hirsch's study, represents the achievement of peak oil production, the U.S. economy against an unprecedented challenge in the transition to a new energy era. The closer the production peak comes, the dramatic rise in fuel prices and fluctuate ( "volatility" ) - with unpredictable economic, social and political consequences ( "very complicated, non- linear" ). This will, unless timely counter- measures were taken, lead to unpredictable developments, on which you can prepare only with measures of a targeted risk and emergency management. Although there are options both on the demand and on the supply side, but this would need to make an impact, be more than a decade before the delivery tip into force.

In an interview for the " Le Monde Blog " in Sept. 2010 Hirsch indirectly confirmed suspicions, according to which the findings of its report to the Ministry seemed so unpalatable that it also ruled silence.

Conclusions

• The global conveyor peak will come
• The production peak could the U.S. economy dearly ( Europe is not the subject of the report )
• The global peak oil presents an unprecedented challenge ( " which will be abrupt and revolutionary " )
• This is not an energy but a fuel problem that affected mainly the transport sector
• Countermeasures will require significant time
• Both the demand and the supply side must be kept in mind
• Risk management is required ( countermeasures must use long before reaching the conveyor peak)
• Government action will be needed
• Economic turbulence are preventable ( " detected in time, the problems can be solved with existing technology " )
• More information to the public is necessary.

Three scenarios

• A crash program until they reach the top conveyor will bring the world over more than two decades, significant supply problems with fuel.

• A package of measures ten years prior to the delivery tip will allow significant aids, but there is also a supply gap with fuel for about a decade.

• A crash program twenty years before reaching the conveyor peak seems to open the way to avoid bottlenecks of the aforementioned type.

Quote

" The character of the peak oil problem is similar to the killer asteroid problem. One must start with durchgreifendem action really immediately because we are running out of time. It will take a lot of time and effort and has to be addressed as an emergency program to reduce the effects. If you approach the problem slowly, you're wasting time. When it hits us, then the scope will be so extreme that people work together and do things, so have to make sacrifices that go beyond far have thought of what most of us seriously. "

Dealing with the report

In February 2005, the report was briefly online. He has been taken offline and put back only to public pressure into the net.

A 2007 written by Hirsch in the context of a contract for follow-up study also goes a. Various criticisms about the part of the industry information service CERA to the original report and its underlying assumptions

Hirsch conducted a series of assessments on the arrival of the maximum. In 2010, he updated the continuation of oil production by 2015.