Labor shortage

As a shortage of skilled labor is defined as the state of an economy in which a significant number of jobs for employees with particular skills can not be filled because the labor market suitably qualified workers ( professionals ) are available.

Shortage of skilled labor as an economic problem

How much and which human capital is formed with economically useful skills and knowledge, does not correspond always to the needs of society. However, demand and supply of human capital are not fixed sizes. They are influenced by, among other things, the reward from the other side of the market. Shortage of skilled workers can be seen as a market imbalance. One can interpret the decision ' career choice ' as a long-term investment decision; this is fraught with uncertainties ( " imponderables ").

Training cycles

Courses require a certain training period. If a shortage of skilled workers to an increased number of training leads beginners (which is often the case), the number of workers increases only after a certain time with this qualification. For example, the number of required IT specialists rose in advance of the dotcom bubble in the short term with internet skills massively. This shortage of skilled labor led to political activism such as the emergency program to meet the IT professionals need. However, this lack of skilled workers broke up with the bursting of the bubble and the end of the year 2000 problem hysteria.

In the area of ​​vocational training consist economic cycles. The subjective perception of a shortage of skilled workers leads to increased training capacity in the requested areas. So said Internet phenomenon led to a significant increase in the number of computer scientists specializing in Internet technologies. This shortage of skilled workers transformed relatively quickly in a surplus so qualified computer scientists. Due to the increasingly loud complaints about a lack of skilled workers, the student numbers have more than doubled in the engineering sciences from 1997 to 2011 and are one with currently more than 100,000 new students a year, well above the value of 70,000 new students per year, the to in the 1990s engineer glut led, during which the unemployment rate rose to over 16 % in 1997 at mechanical engineers. In the next few years there could be a re- engineering flood.

Shortage of skilled labor as a long -term labor market forecasts

When discussing shortage of skilled workers, it is useful to distinguish a possible current skills shortage of skills shortages as long-term labor market imbalance. A diagnosis of skill gaps as long-term labor market imbalance lie typically based on the following arguments:

• The supply of skilled workers will decline for demographic reasons. It is assumed that changes in the labor force participation of the population and changes in educational participation are not sufficient to compensate for the demographic decline.
• The demand for skilled workers will increase, or at least less pronounced decline than the supply of skilled workers. The ratio of demand and supply of skilled labor is cheaper so from the perspective of professionals. A rising demand for skilled workers may either result from the fact that sectors with high professionals use to gain in importance, or the fact that technological developments favor the use of specialists.
• Finally, the market mechanism, ie the adjustment of wages of skilled workers to the changed market conditions do not function adequately. Thus, the changes should be described lead to an increase in the wage of skilled workers, which makes the use of skilled labor can appear less rewarding from the perspective of companies and individuals from the perspective of an incentive to invest in their skills.

A long-term forecast of the demand for skilled labor in Germany is difficult, as many boundary conditions affect the demand for skilled workers in Germany. A study by the Institute for the World Economy Kiel comes for example to the conclusion that just occupations of STEM subjects are most easily moved abroad and are also shifted, because on the one hand based on an internationally standardized knowledge ( the laws of nature apply everywhere in the world set ) and secondly there are no large demands on the infrastructure. The relocation of production facilities abroad is considerably more complex. Also, medical, legal or many service workers can be difficult relocated abroad, as these professions require a client proximity. The high growth rates in emerging markets as well as the high availability and the low salaries of STEM workers in the emerging markets, which often correspond to only one tenth of the German salaries, exert a massive shift pressure on German STEM professions. Particularly dramatic, this is shown on the evolution of the number of socially insured employed electrical engineers ( graph on the right ). Although the demand for electronic goods is rising worldwide, the number of socially insured employed electrical engineers in Germany steadily decreased since the last 10 years. In this period, the number of these bodies fell by more than 28,000 (more than 16%). It is this shift from STEM professions abroad can increase even further in the future, unemployment in Germany MINT professions according to a study of the employment agency.

Misuse of the term

Qualified professionals are a valuable production factor for companies. Some employers reward professionals unreasonably low when an oversupply exists in them. Therefore, it appears employers often make economic sense to maintain a skills shortage, even if there is no such in order to influence the content development. Signs of a shortage of skilled workers can be about more than average salary increases of a certain field.

With the inclusion of the number of vacancies in statistics is often overlooked that simultaneously only for a real job opening, there are several job offers by various competing service providers in the field of temporary workers simultaneously and thus the number of open Notified Bodies are not captured in this way exactly can.

A shortage of skilled labor weakens the potential growth of an economy. Especially in countries of the Third World, formerly in the states of real socialism, he also represents a problem for the development of society because essential functions of society can not be filled. In these countries, a "brain drain", which lead to emigration of skilled workers to a shortage of skilled workers.

The term shortage of skilled labor is also used because of vested interests. In 2011, a shortage of doctors, vulcanizers and electricians are scientifically proven. The employer near the German Economic Institute named 2011 240.000 reported vacancies for specialists in the MINT disciplines, so engineers ( 79,400 ), mathematician and scientist ( 4400 ), data processing professionals ( 49,200 ) and technicians ( 34,000 ), where 74,000 unemployed faced with appropriate qualifications. This study was criticized, among others, Karl Brenke by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW ), as these figures would be imputed to take into account vacancies that are not applicable to employment agencies.

Political discussion in Germany

In articles that are published by the Federal Centre for Political Education, warns of skills shortage ( see below). The Institute for Labour Market and Employment Research ( IAB) represents in his previous publications on this subject mainly the opinion that skills shortages could become a serious problem, although at present it can not be spoken by a general shortage of skilled labor. Taking account of demographic trends, the study by Fuchs and Zika predicts a significant under-employment in the coming years. Also, industry associations such as the German Chemical Industry Association (VCI ) is currently see no general shortage of skilled labor.

The Federal Employment Agency comes in a published in December 2011 study concluded that a general shortage of skilled labor was not satisfied in the STEM professions.

Above all, employers and employer-friendly institutions such as the Association of German Engineers ( VDI) see a shortage of skilled workers, while more neutral bodies such as the Federal Employment Agency and the DIW see no general shortage of skilled workers or in some cases even fear a glut professionals. Critics suggest that associations such as the VDI postulate a lack of skilled workers, so as to fuel the rush to engineering curricula further, creating an oversupply of specialists and so pushes the wage costs in the relevant industries. The VDI supports the lowering of the threshold to merit hiring foreign engineers to 34,200 euros and the complete elimination of the priority check in hiring foreign engineers. Employee representatives as Hartmut Meine, IG Metall district head in Lower Saxony, throw the VDI plan to allow this control is not bound by collective enterprises to hire engineers from the Third World. Thus, the level of pay for Engineers will come down significantly.

In the discussion are always additional Anwerbeanstrengungen for skilled workers from abroad, although many immigrant high -skilled work in Germany already in the low-wage sector and not gain their qualifications appropriate position. Public attention was a study of the labor market experts Karl Brenke by DIW because it was edited shortly after a pre-release through his Institute Director Klaus F. Zimmermann.

"So dive into the new version completely new sections on: The temporal perspective is the current situation - with a view to training the next four to five years. Medium and longer -term trends are not the subject of this report ', it is now something askew formulated at the outset. Translated that mean well: Brenke not doubted now the conjured up by his boss skills shortage. The original title, skills shortage in Germany: a mirage ' was changed into a Harmlosvariante: skill shortages in the short term not yet in sight .' "

Lars Niggemeyer sees the debate about the alleged lack of skilled workers a phoney debate that serves the interest of the employer after an oversupply of labor, working longer, weekly working hours, expansion of immigration and low wages. In the interest of the workers quite different points should be discussed: " [ ... ] the redistribution of work by reduction of working time and the expansion of employment in the public service sector in health care, education [ ... ]. "

There are also trends that increasingly recommend the use of native labor. Former Chancellor Helmut Schmidt called on about the economy, train professionals and to use local career changers.

2011 claimed Economy Minister Philipp Roesler, Germany that missing 140,000 professionals in mathematics and natural sciences. Rösler's assertions contradict studies of DIW for the math and science area:

"For a significant skills shortage currently little evidence can be seen in Germany. This results both in terms of current developments in the labor market and in terms of the situation in the academic and continuing vocational training. In addition, the wages - an indicator of scarcity on the market - hardly risen at experts in recent years. Also in the next five years is not to be expected that in technical and scientific professions enters a strong bottleneck in the labor supply response to the steep rise in student numbers. "