Hubbert peak theory

As a production peak ( eng. Hubbert Peak) is referred to the time at which the production rate of an oil field or mine reached its absolute maximum. After reaching the maximum, the promotion goes back irrevocable. The growth followed by a Hubbert approximately oriented to a logistic distribution curve and returns exponentially. The descent of the falling branch is through new discoveries and new technologies a little softer than the ascent.

In 1956, presented by the petroleum experts Marion King Hubbert at a meeting of the American Petroleum Institute concept caused a stir because of its temporal prediction of the peak of American oil fields arrived in the early 1970s. In the global promotion he had adopted significantly low delivery rates. Conveyor maxima were also observed for individual regions (eg for the USA 1971 ). Is publicly discussed intensively the question of the global peak oil (peak oil ). Hubbert had also calculates the delivery Maxima 1956 after the then data for oil, gas and coal. Hubbert himself assumed that the global peak oil would occur around 2010 and held nuclear energy and solar energy for possible and meaningful alternatives. With its model and its different variants of a surveillance study were Adam Brandt According to various countries and oil fields described later applicable.

The industry information service Cambridge Energy Research Associates ( CERA ) criticized Hubbert's model and the derived predictions. Thus failing Hubberts methodology in several respects. Hubbert was a resource growth is not included and new technologies as well as economic and geopolitical factors not taken into account in his model. Currently is the maximum of the promotion, including deposits that go beyond conventional crude oil not yet reached. With a pump tip inclusive of those resources could not be expected, but with a multi-year plateau. However, CERA thus criticized a 50 -year-old model. Current researchers include appropriate factors in their models with quite a. The International Energy Agency sees at inexpensive conventional oil the conveyor peak reached in 2006.

Global funding maxima of individual fossil fuels

M. King Hubbert in 1956 estimated at the global maximum for coal for the year 2150. The Energy Watch Group held the carbon peak in the first half of the 21st century reached. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is holding a further growth of the gas and coal production by 2030 is possible.

The advances in hydraulic fracturing have the reach and Resevenabschätzungen increased, in particular for natural gas in a few years, contrary to the corresponding predictions significantly.

Other peaks

Raw material costs make nuclear reactors from a significantly lower ( less than 10 % compared with 77 % and 93 % for coal and gas) share of operating costs than fossil reactors. In addition to uranium, thorium for nuclear power plants is to be recovered. Although uranium is only a few decades, is available on the current world market prices. However, there are enough known uranium deposits that are producible at moderate price increases. Therefore, most researchers, including Hubbert keep the supply of raw materials for nuclear power plants over several centuries to be reliable.

Hubbert peaks were also calculated for clean drinking water as in the food industry. The global fishing has declined since the late 1980s. For the production of fish farms has increased somewhat.

Swell

• Oil production