Kondratiev wave

The Kondratieff cycles (older transcription Kondratieff cycles ) describe the core developed by the Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratieff theory for cyclic economy development, the theory of long waves. Starting point for the long waves are paradigm shift and the associated induced innovation investments: It is massively investing in a new technology and thus caused an upswing. Innovation has become generally established, reduce the associated investments dramatically and there is a downturn. In the period of the downturn are already working on a new paradigm.

• 3.1 Schumpeter
• 3.2 Operator
• 3.3 Freeman

Development

Kondratieff published in 1926 in the Berlin journal Archives of Social Science and Social Policy his essay The long waves in economic activity. In this he was clear from empirical material from Germany, France, England and the United States, that the short business cycles (see also hog cycle ) are overlaid by long economic waves. These 40 to 60 -year long waves consist of a prolonged ascent phase and a slightly shorter descent phase. The valley floor is below average after 52 years.

Kondratyev could find at this time two and a half of such long waves, where he assumed that the third wave would lean towards its end in the late 1920s, which also arrived with the stock market crash and the Great Depression. Cause of these long waves he sees in Gesetzesmäßigkeiten of capitalism, while new techniques are not causes but consequences of the Long waves are.

Important characteristics of the individual waves are that in the recovery periods, the years predominate with good economy and the downturn - the most important discoveries and inventions are made, so-called basic innovations - when a surplus of recession years there. These always occur when a deficiency, or a was, caused by further increasing productivity no longer satisfying demand.

The establishment of the European railways was accordingly be taken forward in crucial because the previously existing transportation was ( teams of horses on country roads and the like ) are no longer able to distribute the goods already industrially produced enough in the markets.

Joseph Schumpeter

Joseph Schumpeter coined in 1939 in his work on business cycles for these Langen economic waves the notion of Kondratieff cycles, and it turned out that the basis for these long waves basic technical innovations are leading to a revolution in the production and organization. He coined the term for this basic innovations, which he left open, leading to their formation and thus to a new Kondratieff cycle. For him, this was not the discovery of a basic innovation decisive, but their widespread use.

More

Lately, have, inter alia, Leo Nefiodow and Erik Händeler and internationally Christopher Freeman and Carlota Perez busy with the Kondratieff cycles. Focus is often the elaboration of a current fifth and sixth Kondratieff a future. The "international" school consists mainly of neo- Schumpeterianern, though not all Neo Schumpeterianer are cycles theorists.

Andrei Karataiev claims in a work from 2010, to have established the presence of Kondratieff waves in the global gross domestic product.

Classification of economic development in Kondratieff cycles

About the timing of Kondratyevs is common grounds, albeit with some variations.

Since the fourth cycle, the "economic miracle ", is become inaudible to 1990 and the growth rates were smaller, a rise in the growth rate has become noticeable since 1990. Global economic growth, with growth rates of 5 % from 2004, making it as high as in the times of the economic miracle.

This suggests that 2004 is the beginning of the high period of the fifth cycle. The International Monetary Fund forecasts for the next five years, growth rates of just under 5 percent. This cycle could, as already the fourth, full employment and bring accelerated development. The global economy could be supplemented and renewed As with the other cycles in the next 20 years, there could be breakthroughs in key scientific areas that will benefit mankind.

As technologies that dominate a possible sixth Kondratiev cycle, several candidates have been brought into play:

• Biotechnology
• Nanotechnology
• Fusion energy
• Technology resource efficiency and renewable energy, energy saving, energy efficiency
• Psychosocial health and competence
• Mobile Internet, cloud computing, Internet of Things

Nefiodow since 1996 represents the thesis that the next basic innovation lies in the health sector. In his book " The sixth Kondratieff " he argues that the competitiveness of companies and economies in the future will be increasingly determined by their health literacy. Händeler joined the view and modified it to the extent that production- limiting factors such as burnout and mental resignation should be curbed not only by preventive and therapeutic medical and psychologischge measures, but by a human resources total gentler corporate culture.

Theories of long waves

For a long time attempts to underpin the Kondratieff cycles with a theory. This turns out, however, extremely difficult, which is why it previously was not possible to develop a general and satisfactory theory. One of the reasons could be that the economic conditions from the first to the current fifth Kondratieff have changed greatly.

There are four criteria that must be met a long wave theory:

Exposed representatives of the theories regarding the long waves are particularly Schumpeter, Freeman and man.

Schumpeter

One of the first theories of long waves delivered Schumpeter, especially in his book Business Cycles in 1939.

It assumes that entrepreneurs always have enough Inventions available, but enforce them immediately as an innovation in the economic system. You begin to innovate, when the economy is in equilibrium. In this situation, dynamic pioneer entrepreneurs take out loans from the banks to make innovations. With the help of the money they advertise on factors of production from other companies and make it thus enforce the Invention in the economic system. In this phase, the demand for loans to continue, since a large number of entrepreneurs willing to follow the pioneers, leading to a rise in interest rates. At the same time also increase the cost of production factors due to increased demand.

A calculation of future profits from innovation is becoming increasingly difficult for the entrepreneur. For this reason, less innovation are carried out and the upswing will come to a standstill. The lack of new innovations thus leads to the economic downturn, which lasted until the economy returns to a new equilibrium. Once this is achieved, it will be according to Schumpeter again entrepreneurs who innovate and contribute to a new upswing.

Man

In the theory of Gerhard Mensch (1973 ) distinguishes between basic innovations and improvement innovations, with basic innovations represent a fundamental change in established techniques, improving innovations slight changes and improvements are only the basic innovations.

In contrast to Schumpeter's theory of man sees the origin of a new Kondratieff cycle is not in the phase of economic equilibrium, but in the depression. Here, the entrepreneurs do not want to accept the sadness of this state and perform basic innovations by. This results in the depression phase into a batch-wise development of basic innovations, which eventually leads to a new upswing.

This innovation can be according steadily. The lack of innovation eventually leads back into a new depression in which again can start a new upswing.

Freeman

When Christopher Freeman (1982), not individual basic innovations play the major role, but so-called technology systems. A single basic innovation has not the strength to lead to a complete economic recovery according to Freeman. The decisive factor is the diffusion of innovations in the whole economy and the linking of the individual innovations. Only this can help the economy to a strong upswing.

Criticism of the theory of Kondratieff cycles

Opponents of the Kondratieff cycles is argued that the separation of trend ( long-term growth ) and cycle ( deviating developments ) until today is unresolved. Depending on the choice of the trend component (eg a polynomial ) almost any waves would be produced. These problems show, according to Norbert Reuter already in mind that the popular graphic wave representations never have a label the y- axis. That was not an oversight of the author, but due to the fact that it (eg on the development of gross domestic product ) is no long rows, which had just such a waveform.

A contribution has provided the quantitative science research, the " booms " of science and technology research analyzed statistically by means of discovery, publication and patent statistics. Contrary to the assumptions eg Gerhard Mensch proved to be both scientific and technological activities as pronounced cyclical, described as deviations from exponential growth. For Kondratieff cycles or " long waves " critical but is now evidence that the fluctuations of scientific discoveries over a period from 1500 to 1900 were in inverse proportion to the long waves of economic development. This would confirm the historical existence of long waves, but still does not imply a causal direction, for example, it is possible that the fluctuations of scientific achievements to a cyclic pattern of funding followed: Economic growth phases allow Quotes delayed higher research spending, the delayed turn to innovation lead.