Mierscheid law

The Mierscheid - law is a satirical election forecasting method, which is the fictional Member of Parliament Jacob M. Mierscheid attributed. It was published forward in the SPD newspaper on 14 July 1983.

Text and designs

It reads:

Accuracy

Although the "law" is a correlation between two non- causally linked parameters assumed were obtained for the past so often better forecasts than with the science-based election forecasting methods. The accuracy of the law was pretty well confirmed approximately in the year 2002: Crude steel production in 2002 was 38.6 million tonnes, the share of votes of the SPD in the general election in 2002 was 38.5%. Even in the years before that hit the Mierscheid - law nearly to: At the time of the Kohl government, crude steel production was very low; as happened to the votes of the SPD. It was only in 1998, crude steel products of the old countries had risen to 38.45 million tons; the SPD won the election with 40.9 %.

In the election year of 2005, the production was in the old federal states at about 40 million tonnes. The Mierscheid - law had for the first time since 1990, a particularly large deviation ( election results for the SPD: 34.2 %). It remains to be seen whether an adjustment is deemed necessary. About " share of votes of the SPD and the Left Party " instead of " share of votes of the SPD ", as has been the extension of the law to the total German Federal Republic after reunification. The political spectrum has with the Left Party received a new facet to the 2005 federal election, which could not yet be guessed from Mierscheid. Although in 2009 voted the tendency ( worst result since the Federal Republic), but the result of SPD was significantly worse than the Mierscheid - law would have resulted.

It is noteworthy that the Mierscheid law as opposed to other forecasting method does not need any fitting parameters.

Mierscheid cycle

In a continuation of Mierscheid satire a theory legality of the government of the SPD was published in January 2009 under the name of the fictional Member of Parliament. After Mierscheid - cycle participation in government and opposition to change from the period of 15 to 17 years. After the founding of the Federal Republic in 1949, the SPD was 17 years in opposition, in 1966 following 16 years government until 1982 and then again 16 years of opposition.

" Mierscheid " has calculated the fact that the SPD will provide 2016 parts of the federal government until April 10, which was not confirmed, however, in the general election of 2009.