Risk

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The term risk (Greek for cliff, danger ) is defined differently in different scientific disciplines. However, common to all disciplines, the definition of risk as the description of an event with the possibility of negative effects. See other definitions of potentially unsafe actions and the possibility of a positive effect, which is usually referred to as an opportunity. The reason for the risk associated with a risk.

The risk is generally viewed as the product of probability of occurrence of an event and its consequence, based on the deviation from set goals and should be valued in the unit of the target size. In contrast to the concept of risk, the term venture shows tend to be associated with an ethical component and is, as such, preferably in the humanities (theology, philosophy, psychology, education, sports science, etc.) use ( risk friendship, daring marriage, venture sports). In the venture education of responsible handling of risks is replaced by a human- forming function.

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Conceptual delimitation

The risk is to be deferred due to the limited knowledge of probability and magnitude of a number of terms.

In legal parlance, the risk is distinguished from the danger. Here describes risk a situation in which, when unhindered, uncontrollable sequence of events a condition or behavior with reasonable probability, result in an expected loss. The danger is a stronger risk dar. Furthermore, the risk is separated from the residual risk that may be initially referred to as weaker risk.

To distinguish between the terms risk, risk and residual risk also was "The - the more" developed formula. It says that with a larger looming extent of damage as a result of synergies, the demands on the probability of occurrence of the event are lower to still speak of a danger. This distinction is difficult, however, when it seems impossible to make statements about loss amount or probability of occurrence. In this case, the boundaries become blurred between hazard and risk as well as risk and residual risk. It is conceivable here that the damage potential of a named residual risk may be higher by a multiple than that of a well-defined risk. Example: Until 11 September 2001, no one could have imagined that terrorists with airplanes, the World Trade Center in New York would bring to collapse. This event was by then very unlikely and thus considered as residual risk. After September 11 represents a terrorist attack from the air, however, a risk;

In contrast to events under uncertainty and ignorance the occurrence of a risk is calculable. With the uncertainty of the possible effects are known, but it does not have information about the probability of occurrence. When ignorance, the effects of the examined alternatives for action are not fully known. In both cases, the event more than the risk of unpredictable. But it is also conceivable that neither the loss amounts nor the chance of an event are known. The terms of insecurity and uncertainty, the concept of residual risk are equated.

Word origin

The origin of the term risk is not clear. While large dictionaries of the German ( Duden, Wahrig ) the word about the vulgar Latin, unused * risicare ( " run the risk of venturing ") * resecare on the ancient Greek ῥίζα ( rhiza " root, Cliff " ) lead back, calls the Etymological dictionary of the German language (2000) postulated as the only etymological background vulgar Latin * resecum ( " cliff " ), referred to as the verbal noun to resecare ( " cut " ) the " cut off from the mainland rock tower, which is a threat to merchant ships ." Even the much older Romanesque Etymological Dictionary (1935 ) sees the development of the word in Greek ῥιζικόν ( rhizikon " cliff " ) and the related derivative Latin resecare founded. Kluge ( 1999) discussed the other hand, a pre-Romanesque form RisCare, the ( " fight, resist " ) as a derivation from the Latin rixari would describe the incalculable consequences of a resistor in combat. Another origin of supplies of foreign words Duden. There, the term from the Arabic ( rizq " is dependent on God's grace or skill livelihood " ) is derived. Lt.. Duden was added to our use of language in the 16th century the foreign word risico as a commercial term. At that time the merchant understood him as a certain danger or a risk.

Concept of risk in various disciplines

Mathematics

The effects of chance are reflected in the risk in operations of. Therefore, the specialist in the random part of mathematics, stochastics busy, mainly with risks. The Mathematical Statistics, a branch of stochastics, attempts by examination of past observations of similar processes to describe the present risk. Probability theory describes the mathematical basis of chance and risk. The risk theory deals with risks that arise from complex combinations of operations.

Psychology

In psychology, the perception of risk deals with the question of how risks are perceived subjectively. The error research is concerned with the study of thinking, planning and action errors that can cause or increase the risks and issues of risk formation by controlled safely believed routine.

Decision Theory

The decision theory differentiates the behavior of a decision in the face of a risk situation.

• Risk aversion or risk aversion refers to the property of a decision, (x = probability of benefit level ) when choosing between several alternatives with the same expected value of the alternative with the lowest risk regarding the outcome - to prefer - and thus also the least possible loss. So risk -averse decision makers prefer a safe profit as possible, even if this small precipitates.

• Risk neutrality means that a decision maker is indifferent in terms of risk, that is his decision is based solely on the expected value and does not include the risk with this possibly occurring in his decision.

• Risk appetite, risk sympathy or risk-taking refers to the property of a decision, when choosing between several alternatives with the same expected value of the alternative with the highest risk regarding the outcome - to prefer - and thus the highest possible profit. So risk-lovers decision makers prefer the highest possible profit, even if it is unsafe.

Engineering and Environmental Sciences

Environmental scientists, planners, safety engineers denote risk is the product of frequency of occurrence or probability of occurrence and severity event or extent of damage. This is also the Scientific Advisory Council on Global Change ( WBGU, see Annual Report, 1998) definition used. In the empirical application of the concept occurred partly forecasting and quantification problems. Examples of solving these problems are mainly found in the methodologies for estimating flood risk and flood damage expected values ​​.

The occurrence frequency denotes the frequency at which an event occurs within a given time interval. For example, mean 0.01 events per year that a loss event has been observed once in 100 years on average. Such estimates are dependent on the available statistical data and experiences from the past. They are only halfway reliable when a sufficient number of observations is present ( law of large numbers). The conclusion that an event with the observed frequency of occurrence would in the future " only every 100 years " occur at random events is a fallacy.

The unity of the extent of damage depends on the particular subject area. There may be values ​​that can be expressed in monetary terms ( € ), but it may also be feared dead, act potentially difficult subjects or the total loss of an aircraft. Of course, it can not be any extent of damage in monetary terms, finally, the evaluation is lack of uniform definitions of " harm " is often subjective.

In the area of ​​civil protection, more precisely of the fire brigade, the fire protection system requirements planning is relevant to the issues of protected target and auxiliary deadline. In addition to the above factors, the risk management measures ( manpower, equipment) and risk reduction are (premature evaluation of the risks of political consensus on protection target or official specification of target attainment ) is considered.

Health service

An analysis of numerous studies showed that per year, is expected in the hospital setting with five to ten percent of adverse events, two to four percent damage, a medical malpractice percent and 0.1 percent of deaths are due to errors. With 17 million annual hospital patients, this corresponds to 850,000 to 1.7 Millionen adverse events, 340,000 damage ( preventable adverse events), 170,000 treatment failure ( lack of care ) and 17,000 deaths attributable to preventable adverse events. The total outpatient care is not included.

Sociology

Since the 1980s, the risk society has been highly debated in the social sciences. Ulrich Beck, whose eponymous book describes the concept as a trend-setting for a " new modernity ", became very popular. His central thesis was that modern society characterize by self-produced risks, and not progress, as in the industrial society.

In the system-theoretical sociology, the concept of "risk " is used when a decision of the distinction of knowledge / ignorance is observed. The sociological concept of risk is thus always linked to decisions and their secondary expectations of different actors.

The systems theory of Niklas Luhmann distinguishes between "risk" and "danger". The popular distinction risk and safety go far enough, because every decision contains risks. Security must be understood as a general objective, critical, however, is how someone confront a risk itself. Have one to influence even the possible negative consequences of a decision, you Strap on a risk which also has to be responsible for most self. If you, however, affected by effects from the environment ( in the example on the weather), it is categorized according to Luhmann as "Danger".

Famous Luhmann 's example of the umbrella risk:

"If there are umbrellas, you can not live without risk: The risk that you get wet by rain, is the risk that one enters when one does not drive the umbrella. But if one takes it, one runs the risk lie let him somewhere. "

In the Anglo -Saxon world the importance of risk communication was early recognized. Here there is a tradition of linguistic (eg Benjamin Whorf ) and cultural anthropological research (eg Mary Douglas and Aaron Wildavsky ), which refers to the cultural influence of the risk-based semantics. In general, the assessment of risks is now in interdisciplinary discourses, which are characterized by different professional codes and semantics, but which must be translated into all actors more or less shared everyday language. Therein lies a significant risk potential.

Economics

Main article: Decision Theory

When risks are information uncertainty about the occurrence of facts and the resulting induced possibility of infringement of goals.

• Risks against the decision point () decision risk computationally economic risks
• The decisions are made under uncertainty. They meet in a decision, and deviations from the expected value of the result are possible.

• Action risks
• Plan and variance risk
• Bond risk

• Existence of risk

Philosophy

"Hazard " as a condition for freedom

The English mathematician and philosopher John G. Bennett (1897-1974) According only makes the possibility of failure things "really". So is real freedom after Bennett only in non - deterministic life possible, so their potential output is really open. These cases whose particular nature he (English for danger, danger, potential danger, risk, risk, chance ) describes the presence of " Hazard", due to this non- deterministic Moments allow the individual an actual free will - that involve a real uncertainty.

In his major work The Dramatic Universe Bennett claimed that such situations are not limited to human perception, but that moments of Hazards concretely include on the physical level to the basic condition of the universe (which is also interesting cross-references to the findings of modern quantum physics opened ). There is no perfect state, which would be of this interplay of uncertainty and will ( or natural laws ) free because Hazard is a " fundamental constant" of reality.

Another, even religion scientifically interesting aspect arises from the fact that Bennett not only man and nature looks as subject to this uncertainty, but also any notion of a "creator ". From his postulate, even God freed in his work not from "natural law " of the hazard or the uncertainty, the system-inherent contradiction of human freedom and a " omnipotence of God" dissolves. Based on the belief that God ( which religious idea whatever) could not be omnipotent, Bennett measures of co-responsibility of man in creation in a special place.

Geography

The geographical risk research analyzed effects of anticipated hazards at the interface between society and the environment. The research serves two purposes: In some of the geographical spread of research looks at to determine objective risk factors in the interaction of humans and the environment. Another part examined, based on the constructivist social sciences that social effects are associated with the write-up "risk". Specific features of the geographical risk research is the focus for the spatialization of risks and the high interdisciplinary and integral claim as a mediator between different risk concepts.

Risk Management

From a risk management means approach to dealing with risks.

Risk management includes the phases of risk identification, risk assessment, risk management and risk control. The phases are repeated through analogy to the management circuit and thus provide a cycle dar.

The phase of risk identification is often referred to as the greatest challenge, because first the fact that in general there is a risk that must be recognized. This requires appropriate information systems (eg indicators or appropriate organizational structures ). The risk assessment attempts to quantify the risk now recognized. This is done in two steps. First, the probability of occurrence and the extent of damage as incurred are determined (see Risk Matrix ). By multiplying these two figures, a kind of " potential risk ". The challenge in this phase is the understandable transformation of qualitative risks such as a strike or a volcanic eruption, in a quantitative figures. Risk management is now concerned with the question of how the individual economic agent with the risk bypasses. To this end, with the capabilities of self wearing of the damage, the damage avoidance, passing on to others or to limit risks. Approaches to risk reduction can be distinguished in cause-related and action-related. Cause -related strategies aim ex ante it from to positively influence the amount of possible losses or their probability distribution. Effect-based strategies aimed at mitigating or pass hitting that have become risks. Cause -related strategies are risk avoidance and risk reduction. Effect-based strategies are the risk transfer and risk prevention. Risk diversification strategy assigns two types of references.

More specifically, it can be characterized as follows:

• Risk avoidance is equated with the absence of a business or a transaction.
• In terms of risk reduction strategies can be grasped for an action of the organizational structure as well as the technical and human use in business processes.
• Through risk diversification favorable probability distribution and a lower level of losses is ex ante desirable, at the same time mitigates the diversification also become strikingly risks ex post.
• Risk transfer refers to the transfer of risk to another actor, for example, insurance or capital market participants, the use of derivatives or the issuance of syndicated loans in collaboration with other investors.
• Risk prevention strategies cover remaining after application of the above policies, credit risk, which is covered by standard risk costs (eg in the form of provisions ) or capital requirements.

See also: Investment Diversification, moral hazard, adverse selection, risk aversion, risk early warning system