Self-fulfilling prophecy

The self-fulfilling prophecy (English self-fulfilling prophecy ) describes the phenomenon that an expected behavior of another person ( prophecy ) is forced by own behavior. Expecting someone a certain behavior of his opponent, he enforces by own behavior exactly this behavior.

In contrast to the self-fulfilling prophecy, the prophecy is self-destructive (English self-defeating prophecy, even self -destroying prophecy ), in which the person is behaving, that the prophecy just do not come true. Both terms date back to Robert K. Merton. This refers to the mistake to overlook their own role and then to lead the events as evidence of the own prediction, as pointedly reign of error ( " error rule " as a pun to reign of terror " reign of terror ").

Principle of explanation in sociology

The " self-fulfilling prophecy " as well as "self -destroying prophecy " was by Robert K. Merton (1948 ) analyzed as social mechanisms to explain the effects of certain attitudes and practices, in accordance with the so-called Thomas theorem: " If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences. "

Merton demonstrated in exemplary cases, such as the social in- appearance -kicking to a forecast by the decisive reason for this is that this prediction will come true. Thus, under appropriate circumstances, the emergence of the rumor about the illiquidity of a bank lead to their actual collapse; was initially justified objectively or not this rumor. Another example takes Merton in the field of social prejudices so many members of the white working class people of color have the prejudice that they were "traitors to the working class " because they occurred as Lohndrücker the labor market. And should therefore be excluded from membership in trade unions. This prejudice but then acts as a forecast that fulfills itself. Because the fact that colored be excluded from union membership, the same are virtually forced to act as Lohndrücker.

In the famous study "An American Dilemma", headed by Gunnar Myrdal, the racial prejudice in the U.S. have also been attributed to a self-reinforcing process of prejudice that produce their own confirmation. The living conditions of the black population on niederstem standard lead to prejudices of white people against people of color, which in turn, that colored these conditions can not leave. The results of the study have led to the Supreme Court ruled against racial segregation in schools, which is to be construed as official recognition of the theory of cumulative causation - cyclical.

Any public dissemination of forecasts or warnings of possible events can lead to desirable or undesirable changes in the behavior of the recipient of this information, enhance or reduce itself the prognostic content of this information. Best known this phenomenon is at election predictions, which is why polls are prohibited by law shortly before the election date in many states.

If a consumer 's preferences for a particular good changes, just because he can observe the consumption preferences of other consumers, this social effect in micro economics is called the bandwagon effect. A suitable investor behavior is also called " herd behavior ".

As a problem of methodology

The fact that previous work published predictions on the predicted system behavior is often put forward as an argument to refer to the predictability of such systems at all impossible.

Methodologically this way a complex problem is posed because in the forecasts of the experimental natural sciences by complying strictly with an experimental arrangement which we are familiar two-valued logic is often enough: The prognosis is either true or false ( W | F) depending on the experimental output. But a finding is theoretically requires more than two-valued logic such as Günther logic for the prediction in the social sciences to accommodate all of the listening options concerned.

• Example: In the forecast, a ship will capsize tomorrow after the exit, the master may respond by saying that he this " either-or " of capsizing or non- capsizing does not arise, but chooses a third option, namely remains in port - an already -considered by Aristotle an example. How is this to take logical? Günther's here with "W" and "F" the third value "V" a See also: Polykontexturalitätstheorie.

Examples

Self-fulfilling prophecy:

• A disguised as a prediction, targeted rumor develops a momentum that finally makes it true. This means, inter alia, is used in power struggles in politics and the economy.
• The belief in the prediction " I will fail For this benchmark " results in deteriorated performance so that the Predicted occurs.
• The fear of confrontation with a high blood pressure makes the blood pressure in many people to rise to the front of a measurement that actually increased blood pressure is measured.
• The fear of falling in the elderly leads to a higher number of falls.
• Critics of horoscopes like to point out that predictions such as "You're going in this week to get to know a woman closer " or " you threatened this week a traffic accident" in a change of behavior could lead those who believe: They speak, for example, bolder than usual someone to drive or anxious. This will therefore not proven that horoscopes are real provable valid predictions.
• A classic experiment in 1968 was conducted by Robert Rosenthal on U.S. elementary schools: First, he convinced with a dummy test the college from that specified, randomly selected by him pupils so-called highly intelligent " bloomers " were that would show in the future excellence. In an intelligence measurement at end of school year, most of these students had actually improved greatly compared to their acquired at the beginning of the school year intelligence level (45 percent of the selected as a " flyer " or " bloomers " children were able to increase their IQ by 20 points or more and 20 percent could even increase it by 30 or more points). This was named after him Rosenthal effect many times has since been replicated.

Self-destructing prophecy:

• The prediction of an accident (such as a fire disaster ) means that measures are introduced that make this impossible misfortune.
• An assassination is predicted, which is why action is taken, so the attack is thwarted.
• The prophecy of overwhelming election victory by a popular political party just prior to this election result, the basis of which to stay away from their voters of choice because of their election victory seems certain, even without her voice.