Vladimir Keilis-Borok

Vladimir Isaakowitsch Keilis - Borok (Russian Владимир Исаакович Кейлис - Борок, scientific transliteration Vladimir Isaakovič Kejlis - Borok, born July 31, 1921 in Moscow, † October 19, 2013 in Culver City, California ) was a Russian geophysicist and seismologist.

In 1948 he received his doctorate in mathematical geophysics of the Soviet Academy of Sciences in Moscow. He developed the concept of the active lithosphere of the Earth as a hierarchical, non-linear system.

In 2003, he said, with his team in San Simeon earthquake (December 2003 ) and Hokkaido (September 2003 ) operating systems. These predictions turned out to be true. However, some researchers felt these forecasts as trivial, since the prediction for very large areas has been made. For 2004, he said, with a probability of 50 percent no later than September 5, preceded by an earthquake measuring 6.4 at least for the San Andreas Fault in Southern California. This and other predicted quake did not occur as predicted.

In addition to algorithms for earthquake prediction, he also developed for such predictions in the field of economics and in politics.

He was director of the International Institute for the Theory of Earthquake Prediction and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow and worked at the University of California at Los Angeles ( UCLA).

In 1998 he received the first Lewis Fry Richardson Medal of the European Geophysical Society, dedicated to the development of the concept of active lithosphere. He is an honorary doctor of the Institut de Physique du Globe in Paris. He was a member of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Sciences (1971 ), the Austrian Academy of Sciences, the Russian Academy of Sciences ( 1988), the Academia Europaea and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (1969). From 1987 to 1991 he was President of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics.

He has been involved as an expert on the international control of nuclear weapons tests and in the international working group on the safety of geological Atomendmüllagern.

Writings

  • Editor of the series Computational Seismology and Geodynamics, from 1966
  • Publisher Intermediate -term earthquake prediction: models, phenomenology, worldwide tests, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 61, pp. 1-144 (1990)
  • Publisher with P.N. Shebalin Dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 111, pp. 179-327 (1999)
  • Earthquake prediction: state-of -the-art and emerging possibilities, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 30, p. 38 (2002)
  • Publisher AA Soloviev Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, Springer- Verlag, 2003
  • With other Reverse tracing of short -term earthquake precursor, Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 145, pp. 75-85 (2004)
  • With P. Shebalin and other Advance short- term prediction of the large Tokachi - oki earthquake, September 25, 2003, M = 8.1 A case history, Earth Planets Space, 56, pp. 715-724 ( 2004).
San Simeon, California Integrated Authority File
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